If a market researcher wants to know how people will respond to a new product, or a political pollster wants to know how people will vote in an election, the models will give plausible answers. That’s what they do, but the answers will only be plausible, no more. To the extent that the situation were are asking about is novel, exactly when we might gain from accurate predictions, they will be useless.

There’s more in the talk I haven’t covered, it really is an excellent introduction to both the limitations of LLMs and some deeper issues about why psychological science is so hard. Recommended.

Dokyun Lee's talk on why LLMs fail at predicting human behavior with a great write-up from tomstafford.substack.com